President Joe Biden has expressed optimism that a Gaza ceasefire deal can be achieved. “We are closer than we’ve ever been,” the US president remarked following the latest round of negotiations, adding that he is sending his Secretary of State to Israel to continue the “intensive efforts to finalize this agreement.”
Amid concerns that Iran might retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Biden warned that “no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process.”
Hamas has voiced skepticism about the likelihood of reaching a deal. Meanwhile, Israel, without directly addressing the possibility of a ceasefire, acknowledged “the efforts of the US and the mediators to dissuade Hamas from refusing a hostage release deal.”
The Israeli military began its campaign in Gaza following an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7, which resulted in around 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages being taken. Since then, the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza reports that over 40,000 people have been killed.
A ceasefire deal reached in November led to the release of 105 hostages by Hamas in exchange for a week-long ceasefire and the liberation of around 240 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Israel has indicated that 111 hostages remain in captivity, 39 of whom are believed to be dead.
In a recent joint statement, the US, Qatar, and Egypt revealed that they had presented a proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release agreement that “narrows the gaps” between Israel and Hamas. Israel has emphasized that any ceasefire deal must include the release of the remaining hostages taken to Gaza during the October 7 attack.
Relatives of the hostages still in Gaza describe the current negotiations as the “last chance” to secure their release. After 10 months of conflict and thousands of casualties, there is intense pressure for a breakthrough.
There is also a significant concern about the potential for a wider regional conflict if the talks between Israel and Hamas completely collapse. The mediators have described the past two days of ceasefire discussions as “serious, constructive, and conducted in a positive atmosphere.”
Technical teams are expected to continue working on the details of the proposed terms in the coming days, with senior government officials set to meet again in Cairo, aiming to finalize an agreement based on the terms discussed in Doha. While the mediators’ statement marks a positive step forward, significant challenges remain before a ceasefire can be fully agreed upon.
This is not the first time President Biden has suggested that a deal is imminent, but not everyone shares his cautious optimism. Neither Hamas nor the Israeli government has expressed the same level of enthusiasm.
A senior Hamas official informed the BBC that Israel appears to have modified some of its demands concerning the movement of people within Gaza and the extent of Israeli military control in certain areas. However, Israel maintains that its position and core principles remain consistent and “well-known,” accusing Hamas of refusing to agree to a deal for the release of hostages.
The primary concern for Israelis is the release of the remaining hostages, though many question whether this is truly the main objective of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has consistently emphasized that achieving a “total victory” over Hamas is his government’s top priority.
Meanwhile, Hamas’ new leader, Yaya Sinwar, continues to exhibit little willingness to compromise.
A senior Hamas official, who was not directly involved in the talks but maintained contact with Qatari and Egyptian officials, informed that the Doha negotiations had not resulted in a “commitment to implement what was agreed upon” during the July discussions. During those talks, Hamas had reportedly conceded its demand for a permanent ceasefire in favor of President Biden’s proposal for a six-week pause to facilitate negotiations for ending the conflict.
Biden’s ceasefire proposal included the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, a phased release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and the return of deceased hostages’ remains. However, Hamas has accused Israel of introducing new conditions a week later, although it is believed to be open to revisiting the earlier terms.
The “bridging proposal” put forth by US, Egyptian, and Qatari negotiators will be the focus of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s upcoming negotiations in the region and is expected to serve as the foundation for the next round of talks in Cairo, where all parties, including Hamas, are anticipated to participate. This proposal reportedly “closes the remaining gaps” between the two sides’ positions and could enable a “rapid implementation of the agreement.”
Despite the apparent progress, significant obstacles remain, and mutual distrust between senior Israeli and Hamas figures persists. They are being compelled to the negotiating table by others who are concerned about the potential consequences of a failed negotiation.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military operations in Gaza continue. An airstrike early Saturday morning in the al-Zawaida neighborhood of central Gaza resulted in the deaths of 15 people, including nine children and three women, according to the Palestinian civil defense authority. The Israeli Defense Forces reported eliminating “a number of terrorists” in central Gaza, including one who had reportedly fired at Israeli forces.
The Israeli military has issued new evacuation orders for several blocks in northern Khan Younis and Deir Balah, further reducing the humanitarian zone where displaced Palestinians have sought refuge. Israel stated that these areas had become hazardous due to significant acts of terrorism and rocket fire toward Israel.
The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) has expressed concern, noting that fear is spreading as families have nowhere to relocate. Adding to the urgency for a ceasefire, the circulation of the polio virus, which spreads through fecal matter, has been detected within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in Gaza.